Rakesh K. Simha, OneWorld South Asia

NEW DELHI, July 14 2004 

(OneWorld) Over two billion people worldwide are likely to be victims of devastating floods by 2050 due to climate change, deforestation, rising sea levels and population growth, warn experts at the Tokyo-based United Nations (news - web sites) University (UNU).

The greatest potential flood hazard is in Asia. According to Janos Bogardi, director of the university's Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), already a billion people, one sixth of the global population, the majority of them among the world's poorest inhabitants, are estimated to live in the potential path of a watery grave.

Floods affect more than 520 million people a year worldwide, resulting in 25,000 deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced diseases, crop and livestock damage and other serious harm. Unsustainable land use and other human actions aggravate the situation.

Every year for the past two decades, more than 400 million people on an average have been directly exposed to a flood. Between 1987 and 1997, 44 percent of all flood disasters worldwide affected Asia, claiming 228,000 lives (roughly 93 percent of all flood-related deaths worldwide).

Economic losses in the region in that decade totaled US $136 billion.

Just this year, a monster deluge has torn a watery swathe from China to India. Severe flooding has claimed at least 334 lives in China and killed 150 people in India and Nepal.

The central Henan province was hit by hailstorms, landslides and flooding, causing losses of more than US $1.2 billion.

Similarly, five million people were marooned or left homeless in low-lying parts of eastern India, Bangladesh and Nepal over the past few days as river waters swollen with monsoon rain flooded huge swathes of land.

"The floods have damaged the state's infrastructure. The damage has been estimated at US $218 million," Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is reported to have said.

The stupendous cost to the world economy of floods and other weather-related disasters -- now $50 to $60 billion per year, much of it in developing countries -- is roughly equal to the global development aid provided by all donor countries combined.

The flood-related death toll represents 15 percent of all natural disaster-related loss of life.

Bogardi predicts that pressure to live and work in flood-prone areas, which typically feature attractive rich soils, abundant water supplies and ease of transport, will increase as the world's population continues rising to a projected 10 billion by 2050.

He feels that there needs to be a shift in the international mindset -- countries are generous with post-disaster relief but less so when it comes to pre-disaster preparedness, spending $100 in relief for every $1 in preparedness.

Recent studies have shown that the cost of constructing disaster-resistant buildings adds only 2 to 12 percent on an average to the final costs. Meanwhile, forecasting and warning systems commonly show a cost-benefit ratio of 10 or 15 to 1.

Sumita Dasgupta, the coordinator of the Natural Resources Management Unit of the Delhi-based Center for Science and Environment (CSE), says faulty flood control is the chief reason why frightening deluges recur annually.

"In states like Bihar, Assam and Orissa, floods were always part of the hydro-geological cycle but they have turned catastrophic because of serious deforestation, urbanization and overpopulation," points out Dasgupta.

Eco-journalist Pallava Bagla agrees. He says lack of proper management of the catchment area is a major cause of floods. "Earlier floodplains were not occupied. Now population pressure has forced people to settle down in these areas."

Mortality is often highest in rural areas of poor countries where disaster preparedness and early warning is virtually non-existent and where health coverage is usually weak or not easily accessible.

In such areas, people are less likely to evacuate from flood prone areas, and in some cases fear leaving and potentially losing their possessions or their property claim.

For instance, in Sunamganj, 250 miles northeast of Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital, villager Abdul Latif parked himself atop a nearby tree after his home was flooded. "By doing this, I can stay close and protect my belongings from thieves," says Latif.

Even the most advanced nations are affected: the 2002 floods in Europe killed roughly 100 people, affected 450,000 people and left US $20 billion in damages. The US, which suffered 50 deaths and $50 billion in damage in the Mississippi River flood of 1993, has averaged 25 flood deaths annually since the 1980s.

Bogardi hands out an apocalyptic warning: "In the warmer, wetter world predicted by science today, the northern part of the northern hemisphere will likely see more storms while some continental areas might have drier summers and more risk of drought. Sea levels could rise, fed in part by melted water from glaciers and ice caps."

Along with this, extreme high-water levels may occur with increasing frequency. Higher sea levels could inundate small islands, flood coastal lowlands and erode sand dunes.

That's not all for a besieged and deluged world. Scientists say rising sea temperatures may increase the number of cyclones and storm surges reaching shore.

The most massive storm surge in recent times caused 300,000 deaths in the coastal wetlands of Bangladesh in 1970.

"In view of ever increasing flood disasters and other threats to human security, there is an urgent need to reassess how we respond and prevent the potential of catastrophic loss of life and economic damage from natural disasters," says under secretary-general Hans van Ginkel, rector of UNU.

Dasgupta believes the current "costly" approach of building dams has to be junked. "Huge amounts of money are being allocated for the construction of big dams. Not only do they not redress the problem of flooding, these mega-projects get stuck in litigation and cost-overruns," she points out.

The way out, she says, is to adopt localized solutions. States like Assam and Orissa have developed methods for water harvesting and flood control that can be channeled.

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